Early forecasts for a colder winter due to the influence of La Nina

Posted: Saturday, 8 October 2011 by Mark Kinnon in Labels: , ,

A week ago, here in the UK, the temperature was breaking records at nearly 30 degrees Centigrade that's 86 degrees on the Farenheit scale. Over the week the temperatures have plummeted and today it is struggling to make 12 degrees, which is equivalent to a paltry 54 degrees.
As I donned my lumberjack shirt and beanie hat this morning, I wondered whether recent reports of another colder than average winter to come will be proved correct. Recently David Eakin posted on the Facebook Snow Biking group:

Just got the latest La Nina report. "While it is not yet clear what the ultimate strength of this La Niña will be, La Niña conditions have returned and are expected to gradually strengthen and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12."
This AccuWeather.com blog is forecasting above average snow in Northern America:
The basis of the forecast is on the prediction that a weak La Nina will be forming this fall and continuing through the winter. Last year, we had a strong La Nina with blocking over Greenland that lead to a very snowy winter across the Midwest and Northeast. While the pattern will be similar to last year, there will be changes in the pattern that will lead to the heavy snow areas shown on the map.
I am not convinced that blocking will be prevalent across Greenland this winter, however, with the trough axis predicted to be in the Midwest, that will lead to storms developing along the East coast and racing northeast. The cold will be back in the Appalachians, and that will lead to heavy snow in that area. The major cities will probably be fighting many mix precip storms with the snow lovers along the I-95 corridor pulling their hair over heavy snow versus ice and rain.
A storm track coming out of the Rockies will lead to storms moving through the western Great Lakes and a band of above-normal snowfall across the Midwest and western Great Lakes.
I also went with an above-normal snow area along the Front Range of the Rockies due mainly to arctic air masses coming down from Alberta.
Bear Hilliard posted pictures on the Facebook Snow Biking group of "first snow of the season" at Leadville.

Closer to home the Cairngorm Mountain in Scotland have had their first snowfall in months. A quick check of the Tignes webcams, reveals a landscape very recently transformed by a dusting of snow right down to Tignes Le Lac which is something like 1800m above sea level or 5900 ft.

Will the AccuWeather.com forecast live up to its name?